Patients to benefit from potential for improved efficacy in less commonly used types of antiretroviral therapies and one-pill-daily combination drugs.
The anticipated launch of drugs currently in the pipeline, together with the introduction of oral combination pills, are set to have a profound impact on the European HIV drugs market.
New analysis from Frost & Sullivan, Analysis of the European HIV Drugs Market, finds that the market earned $5.58 billion in 2012 and estimates this to reach $9.24 billion in 2019.
The research covers the most actively used antiretroviral (ARV) therapies: nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI), protease inhibitor (PI), non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI), integrase inhibitors, and other therapeutics (ARV compounds like CCR5 receptor antagonists, fusion inhibitors, maturation inhibitors, attachment inhibitors and PK boosters).
"In addition to popularly existing therapies like NRTI, NNRTI, PI and integrase inhibitors, new drug candidates over the last decade have spurred the HIV drugs market," says Frost & Sullivan Healthcare Research Analyst Deepika Pramod Chopda. "The development of new candidates, derived from the less commonly used types of ARV therapies like PK boosters, maturation inhibitors, and attachment inhibitors, is driving the overall market."
With technically advanced features like easy consumption and higher adherence to combination therapy, these candidates assist highly active antiretroviral therapies (HAART), which are a combination of three or four types of ARV therapies. Their value-added features and improved efficacy are expected to boost the prospects of less common drug types.
The introduction of one-pill-daily combination drugs will also be a key factor in market development. A reduction in the number of drugs that need to be consumed directly reduces patient expenditure levels. Other advantages include convenience and ease of consumption.
This trend is poised to have a steady impact on the growth of the HIV drugs market. It is also likely to shift the focus from syringes, as a source of drug administration, to directly consumable pills.
A major restraint to market expansion remains poor compliance rates due to the absence of established treatment procedures. This can be offset by improving access to disease awareness campaigns, treatment guidelines, counselling sessions and targeted diagnostics from health governing bodies.
"Awareness building efforts related to HIV prevention among high-risk groups is increasing," concludes Chopda. "Better understanding about the need to practice safe-sex, use sterilised needles and conduct blood transfusion in a sterile environment, are also helping market prospects." [Page Break]
Product Budgets
Meanwhile, among laboratory types, including academic, biopharmaceutical, industrial, patient care, government and others, patient care had the largest product budget on average in 2012, followed by pharmaceutical labs. Furthermore, when putting the budgets to use, Frost & Sullivan's analysis finds that researchers are most keen on acquiring laboratory products such as chemicals and general lab supplies, while life science reagents and kits are at the bottom of their lists.
Frost & Sullivan's 2013 Projected Global Laboratory Products Budgets research, which is based on a survey of laboratory researchers, finds the average budget for lab products was $257,500 in 2012, up by 1.0 per cent from 2011. On average, researchers anticipate budget growth of 1.2 per cent for 2013. This analysis establishes the size of laboratory budgets for the purchase of products in seven categories: instruments, equipment, chemicals, life science reagents and kits, glass labware, plastic labware, and general laboratory supplies. Service and repair budgets for instruments and equipment also are covered.
The budget cuts imposed by the Sequestration Act could reduce academic and government laboratories' budgets by as much as 10.0 per cent and lower products' uptake. Meanwhile, cuts to the National Institutes of Health (NIH) will result in 2,300 fewer grants, which will bring grant applicant success rates to an all-time low. Nonetheless, respondents from both academic and government labs expect their product budgets to increase in 2013.
"Academic labs had the smallest budgets on average in 2012, but respondents from this segment forecast their 2013 product budgets will grow by 3.0 per cent, more than any other lab type," said Frost & Sullivan Life Sciences Principal Analyst Jonathan Witonsky. "Academic labs anticipate an unparalleled 6.0 per cent increase in spending on instruments, which is also the biggest lab expense."
Respondents from government labs expect a mere 0.1 per cent growth in their 2013 product budgets. However, their intention to spend more than they did in 2012 is encouraging, given the bleak outlook for federal funding.
Respondents from biopharmaceutical labs aim to increase their product budgets by 0.6 per cent in 2013. This is a modest hike, considering Frost & Sullivan forecast a 4.6 per cent growth in the overall biopharmaceutical market. Due to continued industry consolidation, R&D spending is not commensurate with revenue growth.
Respondents from industrial labs also expect an ordinary product budget increase of 1.1 per cent in 2013. Industrial labs deal with a broad range of applications - from chemical and petrochemical to food and beverage - and so, product budgets vary accordingly. Overall, industrial lab product budget growth rates mirror economic growth, which is forecast to remain below 3.0 per cent.
"Patient care labs are the only type to report an anticipated budget decline in 2013," noted Witonsky. "Survey respondents expect their product budgets to shrink by 0.6 percent in 2013, but it is unlikely the trend will persist, as the Affordable Care Act in 2014 will add 19.5 million patients."
In the service and repair sector, laboratories allocate most of their budget to manufacturer service contracts, but in-house service departments and do-it-yourself services are also widely used. The latter appears to be much more cost-effective, resulting in fairly low revenues relative to the degree of use.
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