Many people seem to believe that wireless application protocol (WAP) has been overpromoted. Eric Russell investigates the development of the WAP market, highlights some concerns within the industry, and makes a contrast with the approach that has been taken in Japan.
Extending the capability of a mobile phone so it can access the internet is a powerful concept that is not yet backed by sufficiently powerful technology. When the technology does reach a level that is acceptable to the general public, then m-commerce, or trading via mobile phones, should represent a huge marketplace, if the experts are to be believed.
Extrapolating the business potential of internet-connected PCs to the much larger number of mobile phones creates mouth watering sales figures if it were not for the question of public reaction. Many people feel that wireless application protocol (WAP) has been over-promoted and the reality will disappoint a lot of users.
This could mean a backlash that puts a dent in projected sales figures. The number of web-enabled mobile phones sold globally in 2000 was some 10 per cent of the total number of 260 million mobiles according to one handset manufacturer. Expectations were 50 per cent.
The long term future is also clouded by the huge amounts of money that telcom companies have paid for their 3G licences. In some cases, the high return needed on each handset to repay this investment will never be generated.
This high level of investment in licences may also mean that less money is available to develop new services and equipment. And, where the banks feel that companies have overspent on licences, it may inhibit their lending for future developments.
There is also a threat from Japan. NTT DoCoMo, the largest Japanese mobile phone operator, has proceeded with its own WAP-like standard, called i-mode. The company strategy has placed consumer content above technical superiority and this has resulted in huge sales.
An ITU report says that, by October 2000, after 20 months of operation, i-mode had nearly 13 million users and annual revenue of US$3.8bn or about US$300 per customer. This means income for DoCoMo while Western companies are still spending.
Data services are i-mode's selling point, but over half the revenue comes from voice calls. A cartoon download aimed at the youth market produces revenues of US$3m per month while the system offers 20000 charged-for ring tones. In addition i-Mode offers a large number of content providers.
DoCoMo says its success with i-mode was due to delivering desirable content as its primary concern, while portability was more important than providing full-motion video capability, for example. This strategy has worked, attracting both more content providers and more users.
But this is also the result of the company adopting a technically aopen' approach that has attracted tens of thousands of merchants, shops and others who want to provide services over the internet.
Recent reports say the i-mode search engine can find some 19000 independent sites and over 1000 official sites; the system has also now reached critical mass due to NTT DoCoMo's marketing.
Behind WAP
In essence, WAP is a wireless way to connect to information and services through an open, global specification that empowers mobile device users.
Once people want to connect to timetables, booking offices, shopping websites, sources of information and all the other facilities available on the internet, then complex software routines are required, not only for the interactivity but for graphics as well. This requires mobile phones to move more towards PCs in their capability.
WAP over GSM is slow and expensive, but the replacement General Packet Radio Service (GPRS) will solve this problem for Europe, although rollout keeps slipping. GPRS differs from GSM in being always on, so usage is costed by the number of packets of data transferred, not the amount of time that the user is connected. It also offers higher transmission speed.
Access times to a portal are 15-20 seconds typically with WAP and this is adjudged prohibitive to mass market usage says one consultant. GPRS is an acceptable 3-4 seconds while 3G will be down to a second. 3G will also provide advanced global roaming. Whereas GSM transfers data at speeds of 9.6kbps, GPRS transfers data at 28.8kbps, or three times faster.
So far, only a handful of operators have launched GPRS. UK operator BT Cellnet launched a GPRS service to corporate customers in June 2000, but it plans to expand the service in due course.
In Germany, the largest WAP market in Europe in terms of users, T-Mobil, also launched a service in June 2000 to 2000 customers as part of a pilot programme. Customers in Turkey have been using GPRS since August 2000, when local operator Telsim launched the service.
In China, two operators also launched GPRS in August: China Unicom launched a service for Shenzhen province, while Fujian Mobile Communications launched for the city of Fujian.
Design problems
Increased functionality on mobile phones raises design problems in a device that is to be held in one hand and operated by the other, or by the thumb of the holding hand for the more dextrous user.
Firstly, a mobile phone is too small for a full keyboard so data entry becomes complicated. Clicking a single OK button through a series of prompts could prove more popular. Secondly, websites are designed for large, multi-line, colour monitor screens, not the few lines of monocolour LCD display on a mobile. Thirdly, viruses could become a problem in software-rich devices. Present phones cannot write software so a virus could not spread within the phone, or be sent to others.
While these problems will be overcome in due course, the key question is what activities and services will the public most use. In Western countries this question has not been fully addressed although the answer will determine income for service suppliers and system manufacturers more than the technology underneath the keypad.
In Japan, this question was answered very early on, as the sales figures show. But the situation hides a culture difference that the Japanese have used to their advantage for decades. In manufacturing, Japanese companies tend to use proven technology that has been debugged for maximum efficiency.
By comparison, Western companies use the latest technology that should be more productive in theory but fails because it is not fully proven. The result is greater output from the older machinery. The principle shows in WAP systems. While the West is developing new technology, Japan has used a variant of proven technology.
Global spread
Japanese strength in i-Mode will make it difficult for Western companies to introduce their standards into the country. DoCoMo is also looking at global markets. In the USA it has set up an Advisory Board in conjunction with a number of business experts to help it formulate future global strategy.
It has also announced a joint research programme with Hewlett Packard to develop 4G broadband networks. The company says it will also establish a subsidiary in London to develop new business for the European market.
The unanswered question is whether the USA and Europe require the same content as Japanese people. The situation could polarise so that i-Mode carries more entertainment, music and cartoons while WAP carries more m-commerce such as on-line buying and business needs.
Three years ago, to help establish and standardise WAP in the West, Phone.com, Nokia and Ericsson established a WAP Forum and developed a common language, WML, wireless mark-up language. The objective was to enable the convergence of mobile telephony and the internet.
Now, the WAP Forum is the industry association and its members represent over 95 per cent of the global handset market. It has developed the de facto world standard for wireless information and telephony services on digital mobile devices.
WAP uses many internet standards such as XML, UDP, IP, HTTP and TLS, but these have been optimised for the special constraints of the wireless environment. WAP is also designed to work with most wireless networks such as CDPD, CDMA, GSM, PDC, PHS, TDMA, FLEX, ReFLEX, iDEN, TETRA, DECT, DataTAC and Mobitex.
Inefficient standards
The main problem is that HTML, HTTP, TLS, and TCP are inefficient over mobile networks, requiring large amounts of mainly text-based data to be sent.
Standard HTML web content generally cannot be displayed effectively on the small screens of pocket-sized mobile devices; HTTP sends its headers and commands in an inefficient text format instead of compressed binary; and the TLS security standard requires many messages to be exchanged between client and server, resulting in a very slow response for the user.
WAP, being platform neutral, can be implemented in a programming language such as Java. Bluetooth, the local-area, low-power radio link, could carry WAP signals but the two technologies fundamentally address different problems. The WAP Forum says future developments include increased security of transactions and the finalising of compliance specifications and interoperability test suites.
In comparison, i-mode uses a variant of HTML rather than a completely new language. Called Compact HTML, a subset of HTML v.3, it is easier for providers to adapt existing content and tools.
This language is said to be easily translatable into WML, WAP's wireless mark-up language, enabling both services to be accessed over existing systems. At 9.6kbps, i-Mode is not fast, but it is undeniably effective.
In conclusion
In an industry where cash burn is huge and revenue is all-important, in order both to repay investment and to fuel next generation products, then effectiveness must surely prevail over technical excellence.
